"The Big One" and what it's like living in fear

Despite what Portlandia might have you believe, life in Portland, Oregon is not just about putting birds on plates and eating the most "natural" foods. It is in fact about living with perpetual fear of TOTAL ANNIHILATION at any time. Most of you have heard about "the Big One", a repeat of the famous San Francisco earthquake of 1906, that reached 7.9 on the Richter scale and killed 300 people. That earthquake obliterated most of San Francisco and caused fires that raged for days. According to research from 2015, that earthquake is minuscule in comparison to the actual "Big One". The Cascade subduction zone runs along the coastline of Oregon, Washington and up to British Columbia, and it is prime for an earthquake of catastrophic proportions.

The research of Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues, alongside historical work in Japan (due to Tsunami history), combined with oral histories of Native Tribes in Oregon, has indicated that the "Big One"  will register around an 8.7-9.2 on the Richter scale. They also determined that the recurrence interval for these earthquakes is one every 243 years on average. We are currently 320 years past the most recent one. 

Some of you may be thinking "oh that doesn't sound that bad. San Francisco got hit by one just a little weaker and it bounced back alright. Plus modern technology will keep our buildings safer and give us plenty of warning". WRONG. Remember that the Richter scale is a logarithmic scale. As such, a 8.9 is actually a full order of magnitude stronger. Based on the chart above, it's very clear just how much worse a 9.0 will be. Further, since the recurrence interval is nearly 250 years, that is enough time for humans to forget and rebuild an entire society inside the shock zone without any prior knowledge, and thus without any preparation whatsoever.  Finally, just for fun, here's a little imagery: the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 was like your big dog jumping onto the bed while you're already in it, the "Big One" will be more like your dad walking in while you're sleeping, picking you up, and yeeting you across the room into the wall, followed shortly by your bed.

Now that this earthquake is common knowledge in the Pacific Northwest, FEMA has begun preparing a plan for it, though the head of their department stated that "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast". That doesn't really inspire confidence. Nor do their estimates of damages and death tolls: 13,000 dead, 27,000 injured, a million displaced and 2.5 million without food or water. Further estimates predict that a million buildings will be destroyed, including over 3000 schools, half of all highway bridges (and fifteen of the seventeen bridges across the river in Portland), two thirds of railways and airports, one third of fire stations, half of all police stations, and two thirds of all hospitals. Also, the power grid will go out for most of the state. 

Finally, the earthquake will just set up even more disasters: fires, flooding, landslides and of course, a massive tsunami likely to wipeout nearly every town along the Pacific ocean. 71,000 people will be put at risk as one of the largest tsunamis the US has ever seen will hit. And of course, they will have about 10 minutes to flee, while trying to recover and navigate the earthquake-ravaged area. 

Oregon has also not really invested much of anything into actually improving their building code to adjust for this newfound knowledge. There is a law in place preventing the construction of new buildings in at risk areas, but that just requires that the builder meet with the state for a consultation before undergoing construction. In short, Oregon and thus Portland is in no way prepared for this problem.

Below is the estimated recovery times for my zip code in Portland. As you can see, it is expected to take months for electricity to return, and years for health care, indoor plumbing and highway access to be restored. Years. That's terrifying. I don't want to live in an area where I can't get easy access to a hospital if I need medical attention. And yet, every year more and more people move out to Portland. How do they do it? How do they ignore the impending doom that awaits them?

It's honestly pretty easy actually. Living in the shadow of total annihilation makes one numb. I don't care about the earthquake, or a tsunami, or one of any number of nearby volcanoes going boom, because I can't control it. All I can do is brace myself for the impact, and enjoy the beautiful city that I live in. I'll keep two weeks worth of food and supplies in my garage, I'll make sure I have a bunch of medical supplies and clothes, an escape route planned and a safe place in my house located. But at the end of the day, it's a couple centuries too late to stop the destruction. We can't unbuild houses, and we definitely all can't afford to retrofit our houses to handle the earthquakes. So instead, I'm just going to enjoy the life I can make in this city I've chosen as home.

Downtown Portland at night

Cannon Beach at sunset

“Aftershock.” Oregon Public Broadcasting, Oregon Public Broadcasting, 3 Feb. 2020, www.opb.org/news/widget/aftershock-find-your-cascadia-earthquake-story/.

Chalmers, Keely. “Quake Expert Describes What the 'Big One' Would Feel like in Oregon.” KGW, KGW, 9 July 2019, www.kgw.com/article/news/local/quake-expert-describes-what-the-big-one-would-feel-like-in-oregon/283-d0ca26db-d419-49bf-879c-e674c7d75d35.

In, Geology. “Using the Richter Scale to Measure Earthquakes.” Geology In, 1 Jan. 1970, www.geologyin.com/2015/01/using-richter-scale-to-measure.html.

Schulz, Kathryn. “The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest.” The New Yorker, The New Yorker, 9 July 2019, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one.

“Aftershock.” Oregon Public Broadcasting, Oregon Public Broadcasting, 3 Feb. 2020, www.opb.org/news/widget/aftershock-find-your-cascadia-earthquake-story/.

Chalmers, Keely. “Quake Expert Describes What the 'Big One' Would Feel like in Oregon.” KGW, KGW, 9 July 2019, www.kgw.com/article/news/local/quake-expert-describes-what-the-big-one-would-feel-like-in-oregon/283-d0ca26db-d419-49bf-879c-e674c7d75d35.

In, Geology. “Using the Richter Scale to Measure Earthquakes.” Geology In, 1 Jan. 1970, www.geologyin.com/2015/01/using-richter-scale-to-measure.html.

Schulz, Kathryn. “The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest.” The New Yorker, The New Yorker, 9 July 2019, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one.

All other photos taken by me

“Aftershock.” Oregon Public Broadcasting, Oregon Public Broadcasting, 3 Feb. 2020, www.opb.org/news/widget/aftershock-find-your-cascadia-earthquake-story/.

Chalmers, Keely. “Quake Expert Describes What the 'Big One' Would Feel like in Oregon.” KGW, KGW, 9 July 2019, www.kgw.com/article/news/local/quake-expert-describes-what-the-big-one-would-feel-like-in-oregon/283-d0ca26db-d419-49bf-879c-e674c7d75d35.

In, Geology. “Using the Richter Scale to Measure Earthquakes.” Geology In, 1 Jan. 1970, www.geologyin.com/2015/01/using-richter-scale-to-measure.html.

Schulz, Kathryn. “The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest.” The New Yorker, The New Yorker, 9 July 2019, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one.

“Aftershock.” Oregon Public Broadcasting, Oregon Public Broadcasting, 3 Feb. 2020, www.opb.org/news/widget/aftershock-find-your-cascadia-earthquake-story/.

Chalmers, Keely. “Quake Expert Describes What the 'Big One' Would Feel like in Oregon.” KGW, KGW, 9 July 2019, www.kgw.com/article/news/local/quake-expert-describes-what-the-big-one-would-feel-like-in-oregon/283-d0ca26db-d419-49bf-879c-e674c7d75d35.

In, Geology. “Using the Richter Scale to Measure Earthquakes.” Geology In, 1 Jan. 1970, www.geologyin.com/2015/01/using-richter-scale-to-measure.html.

Schulz, Kathryn. “The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest.” The New Yorker, The New Yorker, 9 July 2019, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one.