Flooding in the time of Coronavirus

Flooding in the St. Croix River

Flooding in Downtown Stillwater

While it may seem as though the coronavirus crisis has brought our world to a standstill, you need look no further than 30 miles away–to Stillwater, Minnesota–to find evidence that Mother Nature won't stop because of a disease. The St. Croix river, which serves as the border between Minnesota and Wisconsin, experienced moderate flooding just a few weeks ago in late March and early April.

A sand and concrete wall built to contain flooding, behind is the Dock Cafe.

On March 28th the river reached the 687 foot-level, which put it in the "moderate" flood stage and also was one of the top 10 all-time recorded floods in my hometown. This flooding unfortunately coincided with the worsening of the covid-19 epidemic. Just one day earlier, Governor Walz put into place his "stay at home" order for the first time. Luckily, before the order went into effect, city workers and volunteers completed sandbagging efforts on the banks of the St. Croix. The downtown area is full of local businesses, one restaurant called the Dock Cafe–where I used to wash dishes–sits right on the riverfront, not protected by the 15-foot temporary wall erected to stop the flooding.

Is Flooding the New Normal?

The weekends of the springs and summers of my childhood were often spent downtown with friends or family. In my lifetime, flooding specifically in the downtown area was not unommon. In doing research for this blog post, I found out that flooding is actually a historically rare occurance. After this most recent flood the Mayor of Stillwater, Ted Kozlowski, put out a analysis showing that flooding has become more common in recent years. “I created a little chart that shows all major flood events since 1950 and more than half have occured since 2010,” Kozlowski wrote. “I really hope this is not the ‘new normal’ for our river and our town.”

A chart of record floods since 1950

In trying to explain why flooding is becoming the 'new normal' I came across an article by a climatologist from the University of Dayton named Shuang-Ye Wu. According to Wu, flooding is projected to increase around the midwest as a result of climate change. In his study he finds that climate change will most likely result in more precipitation and stormier weather resulting in more frequent flooding. It is possible that the recent trend in Stillwater's flooding patterns are only a harbinger of what is to come if we continue on our current climate change trajectory.



References:

“Governor Walz Issues Stay at Home Order for Minnesotans.” Office of Governor Tim Walz and Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, 25 Mar. 2020, mn.gov/governor/covid-19/news/?id=1055-424820.

O'Connell, Jim. “PHOTOS: St. Croix River Swells Past Its Banks in Stillwater.” KSTP, KSTP, 4 Apr. 2020, kstp.com/news/st-croix-river-swells-past-its-banks-in-stillwater/5692094/.

Seitz, Greg. “Stillwater Completes Dike, Watches Water Levels and Weather Forecast.” St. Croix 360, 28 Mar. 2019, www.stcroix360.com/2019/03/stillwater-completes-dike-watches-water-levels-and-weather-forecast/.

St. Croix 360. “For a Flooded Midwest, Climate Forecasts Offer Little Comfort.” St. Croix 360, 5 Apr. 2019, www.stcroix360.com/2019/04/flooded-midwest-climate-forecasts-little-comfort/.